Alaska 2000 Waterfowl Fall Flight Forecast
SUPER POTENTIAL!
 Hey all you duck hunters...and even those who haven't dusted off that ol' smooth bore for many years. We have the makin's for one heck of a year for duck hunting. Even though the North American Fall Flight forecast is for a few less birds that the All Time Record number of birds in 1999, ALASKA this year is on its own pace for a record-breaking hunting season.
The counts are in and Alaska has a record number of breeding ducks this year...and especially notable are the Mallards, Wigeon and Greenwing Teal populations, but even Pintail are on a major upswing.
Overall, total Alaska-Yukon-Old Crow Flats duck populations on the breeding grounds this summer were estimated from aerial counts to be 6.727 Million ducks....and that is a 30% increase in breeding adults over last year's 5.185 Million birds counted. Most notable was the fact that it appears that over 50% of the entire North American pintail population made an "overflight" past all the prairie potholes and chose Alaska and the Yukon regions for their nesting grounds this season. That is going to mean a LOT of pintail in the flights this fall.
Realize that these breeding adult counts are only an indicator of the "Duck Factory" potential....you must realize that each mated hen will produce 2 to 8 ducklings in her clutch. Doing the math means there are some very impressive numbers of new birds this year.
The U.S. Fish & Wildlife department is the agency responsible for maintaining the database of information and statistics on the waterfowl status in North America in cooperation with joint efforts by the Canadians and Mexico. The LONG TERM AVERAGE (1955-1999) is a figure maintained for each species to monitor the changes in populations and whether positive or negative factors have affected the numbers.
For the Alaskan hunter, here is how our northern duck counts compare to our Long Term Average number of birds for the following species:
- Mallards: +153% higher than LTA
- Pintail: +63% higher than LTA
- Greenwing: +226% higher than LTA
- Wigeon: +157% higher than LTA
- Shoveler: +300% higher than LTA
The mallards & wigeon are second highest counts in
Alaska's history and greenwings are a record count!
So we can expect a very good season this year, and perhaps one of the most impressive for ducks in several decades.
The Canada goose and Whitefront goose populations were estimated as having about the same number of adults on the breeding grounds this year as we had last year. USFW expects Alaska whitefronts to be about the same fall numbers and the honkers to be the same or a slight increase this year.
Opening Day Forecast: As usual Alaskans all over the state will get plenty of shooting on the first day of the season (Sept. 1st for most areas) as new birds get wise quickly or end up on the dinner table. And as most veteran hunters know, the hunting gets tougher as each day passes until nasty weather forces northern birds down into the coastal areas from the interior. With the large numbers of new birds, good hunting should sustain itself for longer than usual and if you are an explorer, you may find honey holes where local ducks still remain and are hiding out. One good way to find out if good numbers of birds are still around is to wait around the marsh until well past sundown and see what shows up for feeding that night. You might be surprised to learn there are large numbers still around but keeping a low profile during the morning and daytime.
For SOUTHCENTRAL Gulf Coast waterfowlers hunting the coastal-tidal marshes and wetlands, we again have Mother Nature on our side with respect to tides and timing. The last week of August and first day of September will have minus tides down to -4.2 for central Cook Inlet. Sept. 1 (opening day) tides will be a -2.0 in mid-afternoon. This will put a 22.8 foot high tide in central Cook Inlet at 7am...and somewhat later for upper Cook Inlet. Without a doubt, a high flood tide like this will cover all the mud flats in the morning and keep birds moving all morning long until mug-up time. All we could ask for in addition would be some 30 knot winds and horizontal rain!!...like two years ago.
AOJ will be taking a break for the opener and the following few days. Nothing short of a heart attack could keep me from communing with nature in the marsh this year.
Klondike Kid
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